Pakistan and Afghanistan: on the edge of the abyss

In an interview with Spanish daily El Pais, Pakistani political analyst Ahmed Rashid said that time is running out for Central Asia as it approaches the abyss of Islamic fundamentalism. Rashid said that “Talibans have become a model” for insurgency and a “redefinition of the war on terror” is necessary in order to prevent a wholesale descent into anarchy. Rashid is the author of the book “Descent into Chaos: The U.S. and the Disaster in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia.”

“There appears to be a race to see who will sink first,” said Rashid when asked whether Pakistan, Afghanistan, or Central Asia will fall first into chaos. “The deterioration of the situation in Pakistan over the last six months has been terrible, and it is therefore that Europe and the United States are more worried about Pakistan than Afghanistan.”

When asked whether Pakistan is a failed state, Rashid responded “No, it could become so, but it still has a powerful army, a civil society, a middle class, political parties, and it still runs. But the next six months will be critical; if the extremists are not halted, if the government and the army are not united in mobilizing against them, and if it continues in its current listlessness, it will be a failed state.”

Said the British-educated author, “The options that the West has in Pakistan are much fewer than in Afghanistan. In Afghanistan, the alternatives are clear: all of them in which Bush failed. In Pakistan, the problem is that the governing elites are divided. The army is two-faced: on the one hand it supports the Taliban and on the other it supports U.S. troops. It does not have a strategy in common with the government. In any event, it is most important for the West to support the civilian government despite the mistakes it commits. Also, it must lead society away from the aid that the military gives to education, sanitation, an infrastructure. Some 80 percent of the USD$11 million that the Bush Administration gave to Pakistan ended up in the hands of the military and is now part of the problem.”

Concerning the fight against jihadism, Rashid said “The ‘war against terror’ should be redefined immediately. You can put al-Qaeda, the Taliban, Hamas and the Kashmiris in the same boat. Obama has done very well in saying that he is willing to talk to the Taliban. There should be talks with the groups that have a nationalist strategy in order to isolate those who want to bomb New York or Madrid. The second issue is the necessity of bringing about the modernization of Islamic states so that they will not sink, since most of them are autocratic or survive with systems left behind by colonialism.”

President Barack Obama’s options in the region, Rashid said “The Taliban have become a model for all of Central Asia and the Caucasus and we will soon see it grow in India. The failure of the Bush Era was in not allying with Afghanistan’s six neighbors and one must negotiate with them since they intervene in the affairs of Afghanistan. Besides, these countries have bilateral problems as is the case of India and Pakistan, and getting them to sit down to seek solutions should be promoted. Pakistan’s army arrays 80 percent of its forces along the Indian border rather than fighting the Taliban.”

“I believe that Washington wanted to warn the Pakistani government of the Taliban leaders in Baluchistan so that it would take action there. But it would be a mistake if the U.S. should undertake a military incursion in Baluchistan. It would complícate the situation even further. If U.S. troops cross the border, it would be a huge disaster even while it should be recognized that pilotless aircraft have killed Taliban and al-Qaeda chieftains that the (Pakistani) army had not been able to touch. Pakistan’s middle class, which is sick of the extremists, supports these attacks; the problem is that it has unleashed the wrath of the people living there.”

Regarding Pakistan’s presidency, Rashid said “Pakistan’s constitution provides for a parliamentary system. It was General Musharraf who believed in a presidential regime. Asif Ali Zardari should renounce those powers in favor of the prime minister. It is imperative that international pressure should force the government, the opposition and the army to come up with an urgent common strategy against insurgency and the shattered economy. It is time for national reconciliation and not political vendettas.

Speaking to the peace agreement that gave over control of the Swat Valley region to the Taliban, Rashid was explicit “It was a huge defeat. Shariah (Islamic law) has been accepted, contrary to the constitution.”

Commenting on the Taliban in Afghanistan, Rashid said “The Taliban shura (council) located in Quetta, the provincial capital, is ruled by the mullah Omar. Many of the leaders of Afghanistan’s 1996-2001 Taliban government were once refugees in Quetta and returned there following the U.S. invasion. In Baluchistan, the Taliban are capable of mobilizing logistical support, safe havens and money and until that base has not been put to an end there will be war in Afghanistan.”

He opined about President Obama’s promise of more troops in Afghanistan, saying “There should be a greater committment, not only military, but also in reconstruction. More money, more civilian assistance and more police trainers. Over the last seven years, electricity has not been re-established in Kabul. There is 50 percent unemployment and the Taliban offer USD$200 to each young man who joins their cause. If agriculture is not brought back, there will be no stopping the Taliban.”

Rashid referred to Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai as “my friend” in his book. Karzai has come in for criticism for wanton corruption in Afghanistan, especially in the lower levels of government, in addition to the growing of poppies and the export of hashish. Said the observer “Over the last few years, I have repeated that he must combat corruption and narco-trafficking, but he continues to be my friend. The West is upset with Karzai, but the solution does not lie in imposing a prime minister, since it is unconstitutional. The August presidential elections, in which many candidates will run, should be supported.”