Nigeria's oil supply threatened by emerging terrorist group

In Nigeria, a militant group called the Niger Delta Liberation Front led by an individual named John Togo threatened on December 7 to carry out a series of pipeline attacks against oil infrastructure in the country’s Niger Delta region. At STRATFOR we pay attention to these kinds of militant groups and their threats, as Nigeria it is one of the world’s major oil producing states.

John Togo and his new militant group is not necessarily a new player on the militant scene in Nigeria. Togo in fact was a commander of the militant group Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta better known as MEND. Togo grew up in MEND, and was not a senior commander but Togo decided to go independent, start up his own gang and carry out at least a couple of attacks so far and threaten many more to get prominence for himself, his gang and get the government’s patronage that will accompany that.

The Nigerian government clearly recognizes the sensitivities of the Niger Delta region and they have employed a number of means to try to rein in militant violence in the region and to try to bring back oil production to a level above 2 million barrels a day. One component in the toolbox that the Nigerian government uses is a so-called amnesty program. It was aimed at militant leaders giving them patronage opportunities and government training programs and government handouts and the idea was that it would help to bring oil production back to its normal levels.

In Nigeria it’s extremely difficult if not impossible to entirely eliminates the militant threat in the Niger Delta but what the Nigerian government can do is put in place some very strong and effective constraints on the militants so that any attacks that they do successfully carry out are limited, are infrequent, do not lead to any significant disruptions in oil output from that country. President Goodluck Jonathan, who is from the Niger Delta, is under pressure to show that he can manage his home region, he can manage these tensions and rein in militant groups so that they don’t lead to attacks that disrupt that oil production. Jonathan is under pressure to show that he is a good commander-in-chief and suitable to win his political party’s nomination to stand for the presidency next April.

Mark Schroeder is an analyst at STRATFOR, from where this article is adapted.