Following the Bush-Gore 2000 contest, there was a lot of commentary on the alleged spoiler role of Ralph Nader and his Green Party in Florida, won by George W. Bush with 537 votes. In fact, the certified vote tally shows that ALL of the eight third-parties obtained more than 537 votes. Data from the 2016 race are also suggestive.
 
Here follows a table with data for the presidential candidates of the major parties and minor parties that appeared on the ballot in the 2000 general election. Following the table are data from the 2016 presidential election.
 
Presidential candidate              Vote total               %                    Party
and running mate
 
George Walker Bush–
Richard Bruce Cheney                      2,912,790            48.847%            Republican
 
Albert Arnold Gore Jr.–
Joseph Isadore Lieberman               2,912,253             48.838%           Democratic
 
Ralph Nader–
Winona LaDuke                                97,488                  1.635%             Green
 
Patrick J. Buchanan–
Ezola B. Foster                                 17,484                  0.293%             Reform
 
Harry Browne–
Art Olivier                                          16,415                  0.275%            Libertarian
 
John Hagelin–
Nat Goldhaber                                    2,281                  0.038%            Natural Law
 
Monica Moorehead–
Gloria La Riva                                     1,804                  0.030%            Workers World
 
Howard Phillips–
Curtis Frazier                                      1,371                  0.023%           Constitution
 
David McReynolds–
Mary Cal Hollis                                      622                   0.010%            Socialist
 
James Harris–
Margaret Trowe                                    562                   0.009%            Socialist Workers
 
Write-ins                                                  36                   0.000%
 
Total                                              5,963,110
 
 
This prompts the question: In what states in the 2016 election was the margin by Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton, or Clinton over Trump, eclipsed by the votes for third parties?
 
The answer is 13 of the 50 states.
 
Here are the figures from Cook Political
 
Trump over Clinton/All Third Parties
 
Arizona: 48.7/45.1/6.2
 
Florida: 49.0/47.8/3.2
 
Michigan: 47.5/47.3/5.2
 
North Carolina: 49.8/46.2/4.0
 
Pennsylvania: 48.6/47.9/3.6
 
Utah: 45.5/27.5/27.0
 
Wisconsin: 47.2/46.5/6.3
 
Clinton over Trump/All Third Parties 
 
Colorado: 48.2/43.3/8.6
 
Maine: 47.8/44.9/7.3
 
Minnesota: 46.4/44.9/8.6
 
Nevada: 47.9/45.5/6.6
 
New Hampshire: 46.8/46.5/6.7
 
Virginia: 49.8/44.4/5.8
 
Also note: Oregon: 50.1/39.1/10.8
 
Of course, these figures do not tell us how voters for third parties would have voted if they had not voted for the third party they did.
 
Would their second choice have been Trump or Hillary?
 
Spero News columnist James M. Thunder is an attorney who practices in the Washington DC area.


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The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author only, not of Spero News.

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