Historian Michael Paulwitz claims that demography dictates the destiny of Germany and thus the death of the German welfare state. “Hard struggles,” wrote Paulwitz, over scarce resources will mean that native Germans “will inevitably lose out” as they become a minority in their own country. His article followed the release of government data from Germany’s statistics office. The data shows that 21 per cent of the total population have a migrant background, but Paulwitz shows that among younger age cohorts, the percentage is higher.
 
Official statistics show that one in three people aged under 18 residing in Germany have a foreign background. But that number jumps to 36 per cent among children people under the age of five.
 
Paulwitz wrote that the official report “allows one to appreciate where [Germany] is headed.” In Berlin, for example, Paulwitz wrote that residents with a migrant background constitute 30 per cent of the community. Ethnic Germans, he wrote, are already minority in the center of Berlin and many of the surrounding central districts.
 
“First in the cities, later throughout the country, ethnic Germans are to become a minority in their own city and in their own country,” Paulwitz wrote. “Will Germany still be, in the coming years and decades, the land of the Germans when immigration of people from non-European cultures continues at a high level?” 
 
"One does not need much imagination to imagine how profoundly the population picture will change within the next two decades.” 
 
Paulwitz goes on to describe the effect this demographic shift will have on Germany’s social welfare scheme. During this timeframe, many current retirees will die, while those at the peak of their working lives (ages 45 to 65) with regards to paying taxes will have withdrawn from the workforce. Noting that statistics show that people with foreign roots are twice as likely to be unemployed than Germans and are significantly more likely to have been educated to only a lower secondary school level, Paulwitz wrote, “The social and redistributive state as we know it will no longer be affordable at its present level when the population is no longer dominated by ethnic Germans, and is a multicultural population mix.”
 
Paulwitz wrote that while Chancellor Angela Merkel’s policy of welcoming refugees and migrants was a “dramatic escalation” of previous policies, even before she opened the door to Germany a quarter of the people in Germany aged between 15 and 45 had foreign roots in 2014. He wrote that “through family reunification, this number [1.6 million] is expected to at least double if not multiply.” The Federal Statistics Office data was collected in mid-2015 and does not reflect the 1.6 million+ migrants later that year and in the first half of 2016 nor the huge number illegal immigrants living in Germany.
 
With an “inexhaustible supply” of Africans and Middle Easterners seeking admittance to Germany, and their high rates of reproduction, Paulwitz foresees dark days ahead for Germany and its natives, and “hard struggles over resources will be the result.”Native Germans “will inevitably lose out,” wrote Paulwitz, who also foresees that “the sexual assaults, a result of the surplus men imported, will increase.” In conclusion, he wrote, “A government that decides to change the ethnic and cultural structure of the country without asking its people violates the principle of popular sovereignty..."


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Martin Barillas is a former US diplomat and the editor of Spero News.

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