Jordan: Increased risk of coup d'etat envisioned

The Middle East and North Africa Forecasting Division at Exclusive Analysis Ltd released a special report on Jordan that forecast possible coup risks and increased business and cargo disruption risks. The Jordan civil unrest risk score has increased to 3.2 on Exclusive Analysis’s Foresight Country Risk.

Coup Risks

The special report states that, “there is a low but increasing risk in the 6-12 month outlook, that in the face of unmanageable mass civil unrest, key elements of the security forces and the Hashemite family would be driven to depose King Abdullah II, in an attempt to appease protesters, while preserving the Hashemite monarchy.

In October 2011, the Retired Military Veterans' Movement, made up of East Bank tribes, criticized Prime Minister Khasawneh, appointed by King Abdullah, for not reforming electoral law and 'not confronting threats to national identity'. Videos have also surfaced during the past six months of an influential East Bank tribal leader implicitly criticising the king as being out of touch with his country.

Although this stopped short of calling for his overthrow, this is an indicator of dissatisfaction with both the king personally and his policies. The Army and the security services remain strongly loyal to the institution of the Hashemite monarchy; therefore, it is unlikely that they would seek to replace King Abdullah II by anyone from outside the Hashemite royal family.

Public criticism of King Abdullah from the East Bank elite or junior members of the royal family would be a key indicator of risk of a palace coup. The military's likely favored successor would be his half-brother, Prince Hamza, given his military background and popularity with tribal chiefs. His marriage to a Jordanian of East Bank descent on 12 January 2012 is likely to add to his appeal amongst the Bedouin, as the bulk of their criticism has focused on King Abdullah's wife, Queen Rania and her Palestinian background.”

Civil Unrest on the Increase

The report also identifies key indicators for increased civil unrest risks. “Joint rallies held in Amman and other cities indicate unprecedented cooperation between protesters from Jordan's East Bank tribes and the opposition Muslim Brotherhood's IAF. Since December 2011, youth protest movements from the country's East Bank tribes have been organising protest rallies in Tafileh, Ma'an, Karak and other East Bank towns over country-wide economic grievances, which include high unemployment, rising food and fuel prices and political reform.

This cooperation between protesters from the two communities is an indicator that protests are likely to grow in scale and frequency. The government is unlikely to be able to meet their aspirations for improved employment opportunities and unwilling, for reasons of self-interest, to fully meet demands for increased transparency over privatisations and corruption investigations.

Protesters are also more likely to cause disruption lasting for months at factories where allegedly corrupt officials benefited from privatisations, or which have cut staff or have been accused of pollution. The risk of expatriate workers being attacked, or, less likely, kidnapped at these sites, as well as in development projects in southern Jordan, is increasing.”