US and Russian nuclear arsenals still have a hair trigger

According to the American Federation of Scientists, the United States and Russia have an estimated 1,800 nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles that are on alert and ready to launch on short notice. France and Britain also keep some of their nuclear force on alert, although at lower readiness levels than the United States and Russia. No other nuclear weapon state has nuclear weapons on alert.

 
In a new report titled Reducing Alert Rates of Nuclear Weapons (published by UNIDIR), Hans Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project, and Dr. Matthew McKinzie, Senior Scientist in the Nuclear Program at the Natural Resources Defense Council, examine how the current alert levels exceed current and future security needs and undercut efforts to reduce the role of nuclear weapons.
 
The report finds that the United States and Russia previously have reduce the alert levels of their nuclear forces and recommends that both countries continue this process by removing the remaining nuclear weapons from alert through a phased approach to ensure stability and develop consultation and verification measures.
 
According to the report, the number of U.S. and Russian alert warheads is greater than the total nuclear weapons inventories of all other nuclear weapons states combined. France and Britain also keep some of their nuclear force on alert, although at lower readiness levels than the United States and Russia. No other nuclear weapon state has nuclear weapons on alert.
 
The report concludes that the warning made by opponents of de-alerting, that it could trigger a re-alerting race in a crisis that count undermine stability, is a “straw man” argument that overplays risks, downplays benefits, and ignores that current alert postures already include plans to increase readiness and alert rates in a crisis.
 
According to the report, “while there are risks with alerted and de-alerted postures, a re-alerting race that takes three months under a de-alerted posture is much preferable to a re-alerting race that takes only three hours under the current highly alerted posture. A de-alerted nuclear posture would allow the national leaders to think carefully about their decisions, rather than being forced by time constraints to choose from a list of pre-designated responses with catastrophic consequences.”
 
During his election campaign, President Barack Obama promised to work with Russia to take nuclear weapons off “hair-trigger” alert, but the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) instead decided to keep the existing alert posture. The post-NPR review that has now been completed but has yet to be announced hopefully will include a reduction of the alert level, not least because the Intelligence Community has concluded that a Russian surprise first strike is unlikely to occur.
 
The UNIDIR report finds that the United States and Russia previously have reduce the alert levels of their nuclear forces and recommends that they continue this process by removing the remaining nuclear weapons from alert through a phased approach to ensure stability and develop consultation and verification measures.
 
 
 
See the report here.


Spero News editor Martin Barillas is a former US diplomat, who also worked as a democracy advocate and election observer in Latin America. He is also a freelance translator.

Filed under politics, russia, nuclear weapons, diplomacy, war, us, france, uk, eu, Global

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