Alisa Lockwood, of the London-based Exclusive Analysis Ltd, released a special report to the company’s clients forecasting Russia’s political and regulatory outlook under Vladimir Putin’s presidency. The analyst spoke to the implications for the energy, mining, banking and construction sectors. Speaking to some of the key elements of the report, Lockwood said, “The regulatory environment in the financial services sector is likely to toughen. New measures will be introduced to limit related-party lending and to ensure that senior management is held responsible for asset stripping at failing financial institutions. Transactions involving offshore jurisdictions will come under increasing government scrutiny due to concerns over tax evasion.”
The report suggests that steps towards liberalization under Putin will be taken in the form of accelerated privatization of state-owned enterprises, selective deregulation, decentralization of state authority and streamlining of the tax regime. Exclusive-Analysis forecasts that the construction and technology sectors in particular are likely to see selective deregulation under a Putin government.
Putin's economic policy is likely to be geared toward large-scale infrastructure improvement projects, as well as increased defense and social spending, “which he plans to finance by attracting foreign investment into the energy sector and expanding oil and gas production,” according to the report.
Exclusive-Analysis predicts that the “gradual opening of political space will be accompanied by the dismantlement of the United Russia, emergence of new political parties and increasing presence of technocrats at ministerial levels. The conservative faction of current or former representatives of law enforcement and security services, known as the 'Siloviki', will likely retain their influence over the hydrocarbon and defence sectors.”
Exclusive Analysis Ltd describes itself as a specialist intelligence company that forecasts commercially relevant political and violent risks worldwide.