Business analysts say the Great Trek to greener pastures is wrecking any chance of future economic recovery.
The mass departure, mostly to the West and to South Africa and Botswana, has rendered ineffective efforts by both the government and the private sector to prop up the sick economy. Both have sunk billions of Zimbabwe dollars into new skills training - but most who complete the course or re-training quickly depart for a better life elsewhere.
"Some 70 to 90 per cent of Zimbabwean university graduates are working outside the country," said Community Development and Women Affairs Minister Eunice Chitambira at a recent conference on labour migration. She said the heaviest losses were among teachers, doctors, nurses and pharmacists. Most health professionals head for the United Kingdom.
According to the Southern African Migration Project, funded by Canadian and British government aid, more than 50 per cent of skilled Zimbabweans surveyed said they intend emigrating either indefinitely or permanently.
More than four million Zimbabweans, just under a third of the population, have fled into exile since the country was plunged into deep economic and political crisis from 2000 onwards. Some 80 per cent of those who’ve remained are unemployed.
Figures obtained from the government's Central Statistical Office, CSO, suggest that among the general exodus, some 2600 highly skilled people left Zimbabwe between January and June this year. But employers and business analysts dispute the official figures, saying they are not a true reflection of the real situation. They note that hundreds of thousands of Zimbabweans have streamed out of the country unofficially, especially into southern Africa, while others have left on the pretext of going on holiday never to return.
According to the CSO, 540,000 locals officially travelled abroad last year compared to 375,000 in 2004, and analysts say a sizeable number of these people never returned. Huge numbers of Zimbabweans fled the country illegally, mainly to South Africa.
John Mufukare, the executive director of the Employers Confederation of Zimbabwe, said the country's economic and political crisis was the major force fuelling the brain drain. He said although it was difficult to quantify the latter in terms of losses to the economy, the human resource base is clearly shrinking at an alarming rate.
Mufukare said there is a high demand both regionally and internationally for Zimbabwe's skilled workers. Employers could do little to keep skilled personnel when salaries constantly lagged behind Zimbabwe's astronomic inflation rate, which surged to a record 1195 per cent in May and is predicted by the World Bank to hit the 2500 per cent mark next year. "The figures of the departing Zimbabweans, particularly the unofficial figures which are the real ones, are a barometer of the performance of the economy," said Mufukare.
The CSO figures show that in the first half of this year, 955 highly qualified Zimbabweans emigrated to Botswana, 532 to the United Kingdom, 324 to South Africa and 114 to New Zealand. Immigration of skilled people was minimal.
While the public health sector has been the hardest hit by the brain drain, private businesses have also been badly affected. "Zimbabwe's human capital is simply draining away," said one economist.
Emcoz's Mufukare said that until the government reined in runaway inflation there is nothing it can do to stop the brain drain. Spiralling price rises had somehow to be contained before any meaningful economic recovery plan could be implemented.
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