“The world simply cannot afford to leave massive quantities of oil, gas and coal in the ground and move precipitously to unproven alternatives while still hoping to satisfy future growth in global energy demand.”
That message was delivered Feb. 11 by Saudi Aramco president and CEO Abdallah S. Jum‘ah during his keynote address at the Cambridge Energy Research Associates Annual Conference, or CERAWeek 2008, in Houston.
The high-profile event was attended by more than 1,600 energy executives, policy makers, and financial and technology thought leaders from about 60 countries.
The theme of this year’s conference was “Quest for Security: Strategies for a New Energy Future.” Jum‘ah addressed this topic in his speech titled “The Future of Global Energy: Uncertainty Surrounding Global Energy Issues and Policies, and its Impact on Future Supply Expansion.”
Jum‘ah said he is “deeply concerned that if the prevailing confusion involving energy issues continues and key players scatter in different directions in trying to address those issues based on varying agendas, there is considerable risk that the necessary expansion of energy supplies would be significantly compromised.”
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“We also need the whole world to arrive at greater clarity as to what it wants and realistically can achieve in terms of a future energy mix; to achieve a greater consensus among producers and consumers about the roles and responsibilities of each in terms of realizing that mix; and finally, to enhance the security of both supply and of demand over the long term,” Jum‘ah said.
“With time, we will need to draw upon a variety of energy sources, including alternatives, to help meet demand,” he said, pointing out that expert forecasts indicate fossil fuels will continue to dominate global energy supplies for the foreseeable future. In fact, the share of fossil fuels is predicted to remain above 80 percent through the year 2030.
Regardless of this data, “A number of well-intentioned strategies call for a much more aggressive displacement of fossil fuels, despite major technological, economic infrastructure and public acceptance hurdles remaining in the way of achieving targets,” Jum‘ah said. “That has led to considerable confusion over what is realistic when it comes to alternatives, and what the future call on alternatives and conventional sources will actually be. Such uncertainty clearly has negative implications for the vast investments required to expand supplies of fossil fuels.”
Jum‘ah pointed out that, “If conventional and nonconventional oil resources fall victim to well-intentioned but ultimately flawed or confusing energy policies, then the necessary investment of time, toil and treasure may not materialize, and a significant proportion of these precious resources might not be recovered.”
To help meet the world’s growing appetite for energy while protecting the environment, Jum‘ah said, “The world community needs to reach a consensus on this issue and clearly articulate a future path so that we can work together.”
To accomplish that goal, he recommended a four-step program: First, agree that we should continue to develop fossil energy resources while making their use cleaner and more efficient. Second, craft a consensus on energy strategies that devote sufficient attention to the rational develo
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