With changing events and increasing volumes of information, it is more important than ever that we rigorously consider all information and potential outcomes and give our readers alternative views that will help them understand a situation fully as they make their decisions.
Alternative views are often warranted when we don't have total confidence in either our evidence or a key assumption while we're thinking logically through a problem.
They also can be warranted by our "feel" as experts for the logic of an issue or development. When we look at a situation, most of us realize the evidence suggests more than one outcome. We find ourselves say ing, "well, it depends." Saying this should tell us that alternative analysis is called for and would help the readers.
The warning function of intelligence analysis requires us to alert our readers to pitfalls in their way, even if those outcomes aren't as likely as our mainline - and often more pleasant - assessment.
Readers often feel they are served best when we give them a range of possible outcomes. They also are instinctively suspicious of mainline projections and resent being locked into one course of action.
Many readers believe having alternative scenarios gives them a roadmap to follow - something that tells them explicitly why two or more scenarios differ and possibly suggests pressure points where the readerss could make a difference.
Inherent Problems
Using alternative analysis reflects a healthy tension between wanting to be right and acknowledging the value of considering several options.
Many readers appreciate a well-conceived and articulated line of reasoning that leads from point A to B to C and ends with a well honed rendition of the major implications.
Alternative views are inherently "messy" because they smack of "on the one hand and on the other hand" analysis.
Alternatives somehow offend our sense--which is generally correct - that good analysis is simple and direct.
Nonetheless, readerss want analysts to include alternative views where appropriate-in their products. Effectively using alternative scenarios in your work shows your analytic maturity.
When To Use
Thinking of "what ifs" is always a good idea, and the best analysts invariably keep alternative options in mind. When gathering intelligence for your report, interviewing the actors will invariably support or cut your hypothesis.
There are several compelling reasons for doing alternative analysis:
When you don't have total confidence in the assumptions or evidence for your analysis and some change in them would justify discussing another outcome. This is classic "what if' analysis.
When there is little chance that an another scenario would develop but, if it does, the consequences would be significant.
When your editor asks you to give them alternative.
'How To Use
Alternative scenarios best serve the readers when you develop them out of your solid understanding of the evidence and assumptions driving your judgment and of the risks that less likely outcomes would pose to interests of your readers.
Make the issue of alternative views one of the basic questions you ask yourself going into any project - written or oral.
Build alternative scenarios into the conceptualization process.
Settle on the alternatives and decide how sound they are by the time you do your concept paper - not as you go along. Worse yet, don't come up with new ones after you write your draft.
Smartly and objectively gather intelligence - interviewing the actors is highly valuable.
Your team or you may often uncover alternative views that deserve to be articulated, not papered over.
Sometimes you need to recognize that the differences you can't iron out in these processes should be thought of as potential alternative scenarios.
The danger we face, however, is taking the easy way out and declaring all differences to be legitimate alternative scenarios.
To avoid this danger, first make every effort to resolve differences reasonably.
Decide how many alternatives are appropriate.
Make sure there are clear distinctions among them.
Minimize their number - ideally, two are best, and more than four risks a muddle.
Often the story itself will reveal the alternatives.
Invite a team memeber to contribute an alternative scenario. Coming at an issue from different perspectives can give readerss useful insights.
You generally should include in alternative analysis your best judg ment of the probabilities of individual outcomes. You owe the reader a ranking of the outcomes and an explanation-including signposts and assumptions-of that ranking.