Analytic methodologies are any systematic way to manage information order to develop your knowledge or make judgments. Many different approaches exist.
Most methodologies stag by establishing a logical analytic frame work. Then they use nonintuitive ways to add depth and rigor to traditional analysis. They can be as simple as monitoring and classifying events or as complex as using computer modeling to play out different scenarios.
Why Bother?
Methodologies can help you:
Identify your focus.
Bring greater structure, discipline, and clarity to your analytic problem.
Highlight new questions and issues.
Broaden your perspective.
Stimulate new insights and ideas.
Rethink existing lines of analysis.
Analyze trends and generate alternative scenarios.
Recognize impending change or threats to your readers' interests.
Make sense of a large volume of sometimes contradictory, often confusing information and evidence.
Guard against locking into a particular track.
Overcome mind-set by increasing your objectivity, identifying bias, and relating unfolding events to developments in other places and times.
Identify logical inconsistencies and collection gaps.
Facilitate information-sharing with other analysts and agencies, and highlight areas of disagreement.
Add credibility to new or unpopular judgments.
When Should You Use One?
Consider a methodological approach when:
What? and so what? aren't obvious. Reporting is fragmentary or scarce, and sources are biased or one sided.
Reporting is particularly rich or issues are complex and confusing.
Mind-set gets in the way of recognizing change, especially where politicization is possible or the impact of the change would be significant.
A situation presents unknowns of new directions for your analysis.
What Are Simple Ones?
You can use simple methodologies to reduce complexity to manageable Ones? proportions. What you do is array information systematically using one or more of the following:
Chronology. Lists the sequence of known events to give you an objective view of unfolding actions. Helps you identify information gaps and inconsistencies and plan how to monitor events further.
Source list. Helps you identify both potential reporting sources and those you've actually heard from. Tests your assumptions about source bias and the quality of your information. Guides your collection.
Event analysis. Reveals patterns over time by classifying kinds of events and their frequency and by highlighting unique events. Allows you to objectively identify developments. Provides early warning of change. Helps you see inconsistencies and plan alternative scenarios.
Basic influence diagram. Showing relationships, influence, or career paths. Helps you see patterns, put factors into better perspective, and identify issues for further analysis.
Nontraditional Methodologies?
Systematic thinking underlies analytic methodologies that focus more directly than traditional analysis can on consumer requirements, implications, and uncertainties.
Opportunity analysis. Helps you think backward from an outcome your consumer desires to identify steps a consumer needs to take to achieve that outcome. The challenge is to address how instead of whether.
What if analysis. You change a basic premise to assess an outcome that has low probability but high impact if it would happen.
Evaluation of alternative scenarios. Helps you use your intuition or a methodology to lay out several possible outcomes for an intelligence issue or problem.
Analysis of competing hypotheses. Allows you to examine the entire range of possibilities to find the most likely one.
Conflict resolution. Helps you identify consumers' needs and the kind of analytic support you can provide for each stage of negotiations.
Preliminary problem typology. Helps you assess complex issues and identify situations where you can use alternative scenarios.
Formal Methodologies?
You can use formal methodologies to add depth and sophistication to your analysis. They give your thinking greater rigor and precision. They help you brainstorm, plan your research, and reassess your judgments. Most formal methodologies use computers to store, retrieve, and manip- ulate data. There are three main types:
Expert opinion methodologies. Based on a systematic, subjective assessment of selected criteria. These methodologies include:
Checklists and analytic guides. Provide lists of influencing factors or criteria for analysis. Used to assess, for example, military and insurgent force capabilities.
Indicators. Used for periodic reassessment, trend analysis, warning, and comparative analysis on a broad range of issues, such as political change, economic reform, and instability.
Deception analysis. Used when evidence is ambiguous or supports conflicting interpretations. Examines factors such as motive, opportunity, means, past practices, reliability of sources, and potential cost or gain.
Semiquantitative methodologies.
Quantitatively manipulate information derived from expert opinion For example:
Formal influence diagrams. Graphically relate influencing factors and possible outcomes. Can address broad issues such as political succession. Good for consolidating piecemeal knowledge and determining implications.
Public opinion polling. Determines elite positions on particular issues. Tracks social, ethnic and cultural developments.
Quantitative models and data bases.
Statistically analyze real-time data Especially useful for economic and military analysis. Applica tions include:
Nuclear weapons monitoring and weapons production estimates.
Arms control issues.
Assessments of military capabilities and projected changes.
International wade and debt issues.
Impact of economic sanctions.
International energy issues.
Economic-sector performance and competitiveness in world markets.
Environmental issues.
Demographic issues.
Worldwide merchant shipping.
Agricultural crop assessments.
What Can't Methodologies Do?
No methodology or decision-making model can provide absolute solutions. Your analytic judgment is still what counts.
Improve the quality of the information you use.
A methodology is only as good as you make it-by designing a precise analytic frame work, using appropriate variables and complete data, and executing the methodology carefully.
Eliminate uncertainties and unexpected developments. Foretell when or how fast events will unfold.
Predict phenomena as distinct from decisions and policy implementa tion-for example, refugee flows as distinct from refugee policy decisions.
Which One Should You Use?
Answer these questions when you're trying to decide what methodological approach to take:
Does the methodology match my research needs? Will it give me the analytic framework, appendix, charts, text box, or other products I need?
Do I have to make a long-term commitment to the methodology? Can it help me brainstorm?
Can I spend the time needed to finish the methodology within my production deadlines?
Is this an efficient use of my time? Are the analytic benefits worth the effort?
Can the methodology address the key issues and give me the answers I need?
Will it reinforce or provide a good alternative to my analytic judgments? It's not worth the time if it won't carry your analysis further.
Can I get the outside expertise and support I need to use the methodology?
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