Trump has also said that the Obama administration’s negotiations with Iran have resulted in a “bad deal.” He has also proclaimed that there is “no daylight between the US and Israel.”
Jewish voters may be the key to winning key states such as Florida. In 2000, for instance, George W. Bush won the Sunshine State and the presidency by the barest margin: 537 votes. This year, Trump will have to win not only Florida but also Ohio and Pennsylvania, in addition to all of the states that pulled the lever for Romney in 2008 in order to garner enough Electoral College votes.

The influence of Americans in Israel

American-citizen Israelis trend towards the Republican party, even while according to Israel's Channel 2 Hillary Clinton was deemed "more fit" by Israelis as a whole to be US president by 16 points. The Pew Research Center showed that in 2013, 70% of American Jewish voters were Democrats. The majority of Jews voted Democratic in every presidential election of the past 90 years. However, Mitt Romney won 30 percent of the Jewish vote in 2012: the highest turnout for a Republican candidate in nearly three decades.
Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, is married to Jared Kushner and shares with him the Jewish faith. Despite some missteps, Trump continues to make inroads with Jewish audiences with the help of his daughter and  son-in-law. 


Low approval for Hillary

FORWARD reported that a secret internal poll found that Hillary Clinton’s favorability was at relatively low level among Jews in May, despite overarching support for the Democratic party in that community. The poll found that her approval rate was at 54%, while 45% of Jews held a negative view of her. 
The poll was conducted by a group that supports Clinton. It found that support for Clinton is lower now that the level of support Obama received at that time in 2008. The survey also found that Clinton is polling worse among Jewish voters than Vice President Joe Biden, former president Bill Clinton, and Sen. Bernie Sanders. The latter, who is Jewish, faced strong disapproval in the Jewish community.
A Jewish Democrat said Hillary’s numbers are “shocking,” according to the FORWARD. However, the poll found that Trump’s unfavorable ratings came in at 63% among Jewish voters. 

What happens in Vegas

In another poll, the Rasmussen polling group found that Clinton is leading Trump by only 1 percent in Nevada. Nevada voted for Obama by wide margins in 2008 and 2012: 12.5 percent and 6.7 percent respectively. Polls now show that Nevada could be a swing state. In Nevada, the Jewish vote could be decisive in winning the state’s six Electoral College votes. Senior Writer Harry Enten of FiveThirtyEight told The Jewish Week at the Democratic National Convention, “There is a decent Jewish vote to be had [in Las Vegas], and it could make a difference in a small state like Nevada.” Entend pointed out that Florida and Pennsylvania, which are key to Trump, are states where the Jewish vote is crucial. The FiveThirtyEight team is led by analyst Nate Silver and is frequently cited by pundits because in 2012 the group got the results of all 50 states correct.
According to FORWARD, there were 76,000 Jews in Nevada in 2015. Most of them live in Las Vegas, amounting to 2.7 percent of Nevada’s population. The importance of the Jewish vote was not lost on Enten, who pointed out that a high percentage of Jews regularly turn out to vote. 
There are signs of political divisions within Nevada’s Jewish community. A local synagogue, for example, has members who represent donors to either party. The two Las Vegas daily newspapers are owned by Jews. The Greenspun family, which is friendly to Clinton, owns one paper, while the other is owned by casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, a Republican who is friendly to Trump.
According to a Jewish Telegraphic Agency report, the Jewish community in Las Vegas is increasingly made up of Orthodox Jews and retired Jews, who tend to be conservative. A local rabbi pointed out that many Jewish retirees are coming from California and thus trend to the left.

Trump's Florida

Republican National Committee spokesman Sean Spicer told CNN yesterday that Trump's business dealings are a reflection of his values. Spicer pointed out that Trump's Mar-a-Lago golf resort was open from the beginning to new members regardless of color or religious affiliation. When making a pitch about Trump's recent appeals to black Americans, Spicer said: "In 1985, when he went and bought Mar-a-Lago and all the liberals down in Palm Beach County didn't let people join clubs and institutions because of the color of their skin or the religion that they belong to, it was Donald Trump that went down and bucked the establishment and fought to make sure people, no matter what the color of their skin or the religion that they believe in, could join his clubs." said Spicer.
In the 1980s, some golf and country clubs in Florida still prohibited blacks and Jews. Trump's purchase of Mar-a-Lago and its subsequent conversion to a private club rocked Palm Beach society, long sundered by racial and religious prohibitions. That Spicer pointed this out shows not only that Florida is in play, but that Trump is trying to do something about it.



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Spero News writer Martin Barillas is a former US diplomat, who also worked as a democracy advocate and election observer in Latin America. His first novel 'Shaken Earth', is available at Amazon.

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