The Center for Excellence in Project Execution (CEPEX) has released an opinion poll that shows that Donald Trump is leading Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania. Trump must win Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio, in addition to all of the states Mitt Romney won in 2008, in order to garner enough Electoral College votes to carry the day on November 8.
 

41.9 to 36.5

 
Based in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, the CEPEX management consulting firm found that Trump leads Clinton, 41.9 percent to 36.5 percent. The percentage is inside the margin of error, but marks the first time that the Republican nominee appears to be breaking the dominance of the Keystone State by the Democratic party. 
The poll surveyed 1,000 adult registered voters on August 19. 
 
CEPEX says that it is an independent and politically unaffiliated source of information on voter opinion, especially in battleground states such as those mentioned above.
“Both the Democratic and the Republican candidates have differing views on trade, energy, international cooperation among other issues. Just as people keenly anticipate the Fed’s movement on interest rates in the US, similarly people world over would like to anticipate the likely policy trajectories depending upon who eventually wins,” said the CEPEX release.
 
“The opinion polling attempts to provide an unbiased, unaffiliated leading indicator to the general public who want to be pro-active in terms of their planning – planning for new conversations, planning for new policies, planning for new ventures and so on which could be potentially impacted by international events, such as, the US presidential election.”
 
"With the undecided voters holding the key which way the state eventually goes in November, both the campaign teams will be tweaking their ground games to win over this key demographic," said CEPEX Expert Principal Parth Mukherjee, who added, "One of the reasons of Trump's surge is attributable to increasing support from the women."
 
The poll is judged to be accurate within 7.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. According to CEPEX analysis, the error percentage is high due to the results obtained from just one day of polling. Subsequent polling would be required to reduce the error percentage.
 

Undecided voters

 
According to CEPEX, even while Trump is making hay in Pennsylvania, “the undecided voters hold the key to the eventual outcome on Nov 8.” Mukherjee said, “With the undecided voters holding the key which way the state eventually goes in November, both the campaign teams should be tweaking their ground games to win over this key demographic.”
 
 “One of the reasons of Trump’s surge is attributable to seemingly strong support from the women” – added Mukherjee.

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Spero News writer Martin Barillas is a former US diplomat, who also worked as a democracy advocate and election observer in Latin America. His first novel 'Shaken Earth', is available at Amazon.

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